By FOCUS, A Leonine Business
Just a month ago, Virginia Democrats were optimistic about former Democratic Delegate Jay Jones’ chances to unseat incumbent Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares. Jones was polling well, with a September survey from Christopher Newport University showing him with a seven-point lead and raising enough money to stay competitive with Attorney General Miyares’ daunting war chest. By mid-September, Jones was outraising the attorney general, though Miyares’ still held almost more than double Jones’ cash on hand.
Jones’ strength as a candidate, however, was put in jeopardy when a series of texts showing the former delegate musing about acts of violence directed towards then-Virginia House Speaker Todd Gilbert, R-Shenandoah, were made public on October 3. The scandal went national, with Republican President Donald Trump weighing in on Truth Social and Republicans across the country calling for Jones to withdraw from the race. Democratic leaders condemned Jones’ texts but have stopped short of calling on him to withdraw. Jones apologized for the comments, saying he was “embarrassed, ashamed, and sorry.”
Since the texts were made public, two surveys from Republican-associated polling firms have shown Miyares pull ahead in the race, with a lead of anywhere from two to five percentage points. A poll commissioned by the Jones campaign also showed the race tightening but still showed Jones up by one percentage point. The scandal took center stage at the October 16 debate between the two candidates, with Miyares questioning Jones’ character while Jones tried to tie Miyares to President Trump.
Democrats are worried that this late-breaking October surprise may impact their chances elsewhere on the ballot, where in the race for governor, Democratic U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger has been holding a steady lead over Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. While Spanberger has not called on Jones to drop out of the race, she declined to repeat her previous endorsement of him during the recent gubernatorial debate. Democrats may take solace, however, in knowing that ticket splitting has been on the decline both in Virginia and nationwide, with more people increasingly voting straight party line down the ballot. Also working in Democrats’ favor is that the historic trend has been that the party holding the presidency loses Virginia’s statewide elections.
The scandal has upended what was already shaping up to be a competitive race for attorney general. Whether Jay Jones can recover lost ground or Attorney General Miyares solidifies his lead largely hinges on how willing voters are to split their tickets in today’s era of hyper partisanship. FOCUS will continue to monitor this race and every other 2025 state election on our brand-new Elections Hub, which features interactive maps and in-depth analysis of state legislative, gubernatorial and attorney general races across the country.
by Will Beacom 10/20/2025
