With 36 governorships on the ballot in the November election, half of which are open seats, and a favorable political environment, Democrats are competing in states that haven’t elected a governor from their party in 20 years or more. Of the open seats, eight are held by Democrats and 10 by Republicans. Of the other 18 seats that have incumbents running, eight are held by a Republican and 10 by a Democrat.
Alaska, which last elected a Democratic governor in 1998, is a unique case. Four candidates advanced from the state’s nonpartisan August primary, three of which are Republicans. Former Democratic state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins will face off against these three Republicans, giving Democrats a single candidate to consolidate support around. Polls have consistently shown Kreiss-Tomkins leading the field. Republicans, however, may benefit from the state’s ranked choice voting system, which may narrow the field if no candidate gets a majority.
Georgia, another state that last elected a Democratic governor in 1998, is looking slightly better for Republicans. Health care executive Rick Jackson looks to have a slight polling lead over former Democratic Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, but it is narrow enough for the race to go either way.
In Iowa, Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand has consistently led Republican businessman Zach Lahn in the polls, although the size of his lead varies. The Hawkeye State last elected a Democratic governor in 2006.
Nevada will see a close race between Republican Gov. Joe Lambardo and Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford, with polls pointing to a near tie. With the exception of 2018, Republicans have won every gubernatorial election in Nevada since 1998. But the state has leaned toward Democrats at the federal level for most of that same period; Nevada backed Republican President Donald Trump by only about three percentage points in 2024, making it among the most narrowly competitive states in the country.
Another surprising bright spot for Democrats is in Ohio, where the party hasn’t won a race for governor since 2006. Former state health director Amy Acton is leading Republican Vivek Ramaswamy in most polls. Ramaswamy was a candidate for president in 2024 before dropping out and endorsing President Trump.
Democrats have even gotten good news in Texas, which hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since 1990. Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa has led Republican Gov. Greg Abbott in several recent polls, although Governor Abbott has led in just as many. Abbott’s incumbent status and considerable fundraising advantage still give him the edge over Hinojosa, but this race may be closer than we’ve seen in Texas in recent years.
Meanwhile in New England, Vermont Democrats are energized after a poll showed Republican Gov. Phil Scott trailing Democrat Amanda Janoo by six percentage points. Other polls have shown Governor Scott with the lead, but Democrats see this as their best opportunity to unseat Scott who has held the office since 2017.
Republicans, for their part, are optimistic that they can flip Kansas, where outgoing Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly is term-limited and cannot seek reelection. Republican state Senate President Ty Masterson has led Democratic state Sen. Cindy Holscher in most publicly available polling.
For a more detailed breakdown of these races, state legislative races and attorney general races, check out FOCUS’ 2026 State Elections Hub where we will continue to monitor state elections and their outcomes.
by Will Beacom 10/12/26
