By FOCUS, A Leonine Business
This year’s elections in New Jersey and Virginia are being closely watched as key indicators of the nation’s political climate heading into the 2026 midterms. These off-year gubernatorial races often act as a barometer for the broader mood of the electorate, and this year, both parties see opportunities to reshape state-level power dynamics.
In Virginia, Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears is seeking to succeed outgoing Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin. She faces Democratic U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger, whose message of affordability and government accountability appears to be resonating with voters. Spanberger has a commanding financial advantage, raising more than twice as much as Earle-Sears by mid-September. Polling data shows Spanberger leading by varying margins, anywhere from a tie to a 17-point advantage. Spanberger’s lead may be explained by the different approaches the two campaigns are taking; while Spanberger is focusing on affordability and federal accountability, Earle-Sears is largely talking about social issues like transgender children in sports and restrooms. Recent polling found that Virginia voters are most concerned about the cost of living and threats to democracy, while LGBT issues did not crack the top five. This disconnect may contribute to Earle-Sears’ difficulty in gaining traction. To make things harder for the lieutenant governor, Virginia tends to vote against the party in power in the White House, having reliably done so in all gubernatorial races since the 1970s, with one exception in 2013.
Meanwhile, in New Jersey, former Republican Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli is taking a second shot at the governor’s seat after narrowly losing to Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy in 2021. He faces Democratic U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill in what has already become the most expensive gubernatorial contest in state history. Both candidates accepted public financing, limiting their campaigns to $18.5 million each but outside groups, such as the Democratic Governors Association, are pouring in millions more. Sherrill holds a steady lead in most polls, but with margins tightening, the race remains competitive. Her challenge: no party has won three consecutive gubernatorial elections in New Jersey since the 1960s. Ciattarelli’s challenge: his alignment with President Donald Trump could prove costly in a state that rejected President Trump by six points in 2024.
FOCUS will continue to monitor these races and every other 2025 state election on our brand-new Elections Hub, which features interactive maps and in-depth analysis of state legislative, gubernatorial and attorney general races across the country. In addition to electing new governors, voters in New Jersey and Virginia will also elect new legislators for their lower chambers, and Virginia will pick a new Attorney General, in a race that has been upended by scandal. Additionally, Minnesota is holding two special elections for state Senate that could flip the balance of power in the chamber. Get the full story and track every race at the Elections Hub.
by Will Beacom 11/4/25